Planning Renewable Electricity Using Life-Cycle Analysis

Abstract

It has been predicted that by the mid-21st century worldwide energy demand will grow two to three times the current level of demand. Expanding the global electric power generation capacity will be problematic using the three predominant methods, namely, nuclear fission, fossil fuels and hydropower. There are few suitable sites left for new large-scale hydropower dams. Both fossil fuels and nuclear fission have widespread environmental consequences to their use and the supply of fuel for these two technologies is a non-renewable resource. Renewable energy system (RES) technologies have been proposed as the means to expanding energy markets in a sustainable manner.

A formative step in deploying RES will be the design of a standardized methodology for determining policy and planning decisions to initiate market and government support for these nascent technologies. This thesis outlines the design of a RES planning model based on the life-cycle analysis (LA) methodology. The proposed model will integrate a climatologically-based renewable energy optimization and simulation (REOS) model into the LCA. Goal-attainment algorithms will be used to find feasible installed capacities for power generation which will meet a prescribed load demand and simultaneously attempt to meet desired policy targets. The policy targets here will be the per-kilowatt hour price of power, life-cycle air-borne CO2 emissions, and the land requirements of the system. An analysis of the performance of RES technologies in two Canadian cities that already have mature electricity utilities is done to demonstrate the methodology.